Gerald Ford was only President of the United States for about two and a half years. He was appointed vice president after taking over for Spiro Agnew who was forced to resign for being a crook. Ford soon after became president, completing the term of Richard Nixon, who was forced to resign for being a crook. (“I am not a crook” notwithstanding.) The only thing I remember from Ford’s administration was that he wanted everyone to wear buttons that had the letters ‘WIN’ on them. The letters stood for ‘Whip Inflation Now.” At 12 years of age, I vaguely understood that inflation meant that candy bars were getting more expensive and that a soda that used to cost 10 cents now cost a quarter. What was less clear was how wearing a button would help keep prices down. Turns out no one else understood that either. In 1976, Ford lost the only election in which he ever ran for president. Jimmy Carter won, and inflation got worse until in 1979 Carter appointed this man the chair of the Federal Reserve and he whipped it good by jacking up interest rates until the U.S. economy went reeling into a multi-year recession and unemployment soared to more than ten percent. But a least the price of a candy bar stabilized.
The original OG candy bar
As a recent retiree, my new hobby is worrying about money. Did I save enough? Will Social Security still exist when I am ready to claim it? Will I have enough for the nursing home? If I run out, will they put me out on the street?
Now I have something else to worry about which I hadn’t even thought about since the Carter administration. Inflation is back and badder than ever (though not worse than ever as we shall see).
During the pandemic the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, went berserk, lowering interest rates to near nothing and flooding the economy with money to prevent what one might think would be the natural effect of a world that was shutdown, a recession. It worked.
Magically, the economy of the U.S. and much of the world kept chugging along because although people weren’t eating out as much or going to shopping malls, they were doing plenty of food delivery and online shopping and thanks to Uncle Sam they had plenty to spend. People who couldn’t shift to online work lost jobs or worked and got sick, but many did just fine or even better than before. The stock market inexplicably soared.
During 2020 and much of 2021 fuel was cheap. Maybe after adjusting for inflation, it was the cheapest it has been in my lifetime. And the stock market climb made people feel rich though the gains (like this year’s losses) were mostly on paper unless you were smart enough to sell at the top or panic sold when you saw the drop.
But now with Covid seemingly over, at least practically speaking, all that money floating around combined with supply chain woes seems to have overheated things, causing inflation to ‘skyrocket’, causing the Fed to ‘tighten’, and causing investors to fear that higher interest rates will cause what we just spent the last two years trying to avoid, a recession. Is there a recession? No, not yet anyway, but people are afraid of one, which in some ways is worse than the real thing. So now the stock market is tanking and inflation is taking a bite out of people’s wages causing people to cut back on spending until recession becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
But what I want to look at is how inflation is impacting the lives of average Americans. Unfortunately, I don’t have access to that data. What I do have is access to my data.
Let me tell you about my data. In 1987, my girlfriend and I had just returned from a trip around the world. On the first day of our trip we had formed a financial union combining all of our savings and now we were penniless having spent every nickel we had on a 16-month trip which took us to southern Europe, Egypt, India, Uganda, Thailand and lots of other places. Our budget was just $7 (about $18.50 today) per day and many days we spent less than half of that. Nonetheless, at some point the money ran out and we had to come home and go back to work. When you added in our student load debt, our net worth was negative when we arrived home in May of that year.
Being the lucky man that I am, however, this girlfriend nonetheless agreed to:
marry me and
allow me to spend the entirety of our wedding gifts to buy our first computer.
We mostly got cash for wedding presents and many that were not cash went back to the store for a refund. Hence, we were able to purchase a new Apple Macintosh Plus with dual floppy drives (no hard drive), a staggering 1 megabyte of RAM, and a spiffy dot matrix printer. At the time we had no furniture to speak of, no car, no TV. Our bookshelves were cinder blocks and plywood and we slept on a futon on the floor of a one-bedroom rental apartment without AC. We had a nice computer though, at least for its day.
Shortly after the purchase, my dad gave me an early personal finance program called Dollars & $ense and I have kept track of our expenses to the penny ever since. Sadly, some of the data was lost when I switched from that program to Quicken in 1995 but I still have more than 27 years of spending data in Quicken!
So today I want to look at inflation (at least in my experience) and see how bad it is. To do so, I created an inflation report in Quicken which compares how much I have spent on certain essential items (food, energy, whisky) this year compared to the same period a year ago. Not included are things that are highly variable like travel. We went camping down in Florida for a few weeks in January of this year but there was no similar trip in 2021 at the same time of year so we are excluding that kind of thing.
First up, Internet service. Our service through May 25 is identical to the penny as it was in 2021, $274 or $54.80 per month. Kind of a lot in my view since we have internet included as well with our cell phones but we are not paying for any cable or subscription services except for Apple TV+ which is included in my Apple Services bundle and is shared with my most of my family. We also get The Washington Post delivered old school on real paper every Sunday. Retro, I know. No inflation to see here.
Continuing on with utilities:
Electricity we have spent $399 vs. $509 last year at this time. Cooler spring, less AC, I guess? $110 less than last year.
Heating oil: 2021 $444 vs. 2022 $255! A savings of $189 this year! Damn, that’s why I was so cold all winter! We never turned the heat up past 62 F (58 at night). Admittedly, they haven’t filled the tank yet this spring as they usually do so this may change before the fall.
Cooking fuel (propane) $132 in 2021 so far this year… zero. Yeah, they also have not filled the tank this year. No idea why. I’ll probably run out of gas in the middle of making a pizza.
Cell phone cost has gone up! Last summer while my wife was trying to work on our vacation in Maine (yes, you read that right) she got sick of having our data throttled and we upgraded our plan for us and everyone on our plan (my mother, my father and his wife, my kids, their spouses, and a young man in Iowa who I just noticed on the bill) to unlimited data. The result is a cell phone bill year to date of $675, up $121 from last year. That is net of what my various family members are reimbursing us for being on the plan. Our cell phone service is more expensive than heating oil and cooking fuel combined. Maybe I should take a look at that Mint Mobile thing that Ryan Reynolds is always hawking on YouTube for just $15 a month. Anybody use this? Let me know.
Provisions is my Quicken category made up of groceries and libation (sounds better than booze). Since wine, beer and liquor can’t be sold in a grocery store in Maryland, it is easy to track the two things separately and I do.
The purpose of my life is to serve as a conduit to transfer wealth to Danny Wegman and his family.
I spend a lot of money at the grocery store. It is the single biggest item in our budget. We don’t eat out much, almost never order take out or food delivery and I only go to Starbucks for coffee if it is an actual emergency. As I consequence, I allow myself anything I want at the grocery store. I buy the best EVOO, lox at least once a month, and genuine Parmigiana Reggiano cheese at some shocking price per pound. Only the finest Irish grass-fed butter to scramble our organic, cage-free, pasture raised, pampered hen’s eggs. I buy organic fruits and vegetables. I also order insanely expensive coffee online from an outfit in California. (It works out to about $3.60 for a liter of coffee per day for me and my wife. More than the daily cost of electricity but way less than just one fancy coffee drink at Starbucks). To be honest, I don’t look at prices when I shop. I buy whatever I want or whatever my wife wants and that’s it. Last year I spent $11,655 at the grocery store. That’s almost $1,000 a month! Holy crap! Now here we would expect to see an impact of inflation and yet somehow, I have spent $254 less at the food store than last year at this time. I am aware of only having made one change. I now eat lunch before I go to the market. This little change has resulted in a lot less sushi in a box being purchased on hangry impulse.
My libation bill has also gone down by $342! In this case, I know exactly why. I no longer buy single malt scotch but rather bourbon which is less than half the price and which I like 86% as well. Seems a reasonable trade off.
Lastly, let’s look at the BFD that is grabbing all the headlines -- gasoline! Now before I share this number a few caveats. I don’t drive that much. I have no commute and nowhere in particular to go. If I go into DC, I take the Metro. Otherwise, I go to the grocery story once a week, drive out to the AT for a hike, or go to see my parents who live an average of 1 hour away.
Also gas likely costs me half of what it costs you unless you have an electric car or a horse. My Honda Civic gets 47 mpg on the highway (better than my motorcycle got). I can still fill it to the tippy top for about $45 once or twice a month.
Finally, this does not count gas for road trips and travel out of town. I count that separately because it is irregular and doesn’t come at the same time year on year.
So, in 2022 I’ve spent $306 on gasoline for local use compared to $176 during the same period a year ago. This reflects an increase in the price per gallon to be sure, but I am also driving more. Still, that’s only an increase of about 90 cents a day, manageable even on my fixed income.
For everything that I am tracking here, I’ve spent $486 less than last year at this time. Yes, in spite of ‘inflation’ I’m spending less! In addition, not counted in the number above and thanks to Covid-inspired health care subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, my health insurance costs (which we pay ourselves since we have no employer plan) dropped by nearly 50% this year. I am paying less for health insurance now than I was when paying my share of my employer’s plan! Unfortunately, this won’t continue next year unless Congress extends the subsidy. I assume that won’t happen.
When I read the financial news, I learn that inflation is destroying me and threatening my ability to maintain my lifestyle and I cry but when I look at the actual numbers, they look pretty good.
Now, your experience may be different but before you panic that the sky is falling, check your own numbers. Your dollar may still be going further than the alarmists in the media would have you believe. Can’t examine your numbers because you don’t know what they are? Check out Quicken! It’s the OG personal finance software with the silly name. Or there are many other programs out there that can help you get a handle on your finances. You know you should.